Historical National Merit Cutoffs on Old and New Scale

A common mistake students and parents make when looking at historical state cutoffs for National Merit Semifinalists is to confuse old PSAT and new PSAT scores. The Selection Indexes on the two tests have just enough similarity to encourage this confusion. The PSAT has gone through several incarnations, but all classes prior to 2017 used a Selection Index ranging from 60-240. Parents may recall their own experiences when the Selection Index was twice the Verbal score plus Math.  In recent years, the Selection Index was calculated by adding the 20-80 scores received in Critical Reading, Math, and Writing. The new PSAT was an almost complete overhaul. The content changed. The scoring changed. The scaling changed. And the distribution of results changed. New PSAT scores consist of an Evidence-Based Reading and Writing score (EBRW) and a Math score, both ranging from 160-760. As in previous periods, the EBRW score carries twice the weight when determining  the Selection Index. The index can calculated by dropping the zero from the 160-760 section scores, doubling EBRW and adding in the Math. For example, a student with a score of 720 EBRW and 740 Math has a Selection Index of 218 (72 x 2 + 74). Because of the weighting of EBRW, a Selection Index cannot be determined from the Total Score (320-1520) alone. Students with the same 1460 Total Score can have different Selection Indexes. Once the NMSF cutoffs for the Class of 2017 were announced, Compass was able to produce an estimated alignment of the old and new scales. For several reasons, the structure of the new test compressed the range of NMSF cutoffs. Those at the lower end of the range increased significantly, while those at the high end stayed flat or went down. This created an odd situation where the highest possible score (228 versus 240) went down, but most cutoffs went up. These changes didnt make it harder or easier to qualify as a Semifinalist (essentially the same number of students qualified in the Class of 2017 in each state as qualified in the Class of 2016). The changes did, however, make it harder to interpret scores. The impact is easily seen on a stair step plot of NMSF cutoffs from lowest to highest. In a normal year, state cutoffs increase and decrease by small, varying amounts. One state may have a talented class or an increase in test-takers, while another has an off year. The scatterplot on the left shows how scores changed between 2015 and 2016 a linear relationship, as expected. The scatterplot on the right shows how scores matched up between 2016 and 2017. By calculating a best-fit polynomial, we produced a conversion table to translate old PSAT Selection Indexes to new PSAT Selection Indexes. As can be seen in the way that points are scattered above and below the line and curve, year-to-year matchups are never perfect. A  conversion table based exclusively on the 2016-2017 score changes should not be viewed as definitive. We consider it the best available comparison tool. Below are three tables: the conversion table between old and new scores, the old PSAT NMSF cutoffs for 2009 to 2016 classes, and the restated NMSF cutoffs for 2009 to 2017 classes. Translating Old NMSF Cutoffs to New PSAT Scale OriginalRestated 200207 201208 202209 203210 204211 205212 206212 207213 208214 209214 210215 211216 212216 213217 214217 215218 216218 217219 218219 219220 220220 221221 222221 223221 224222 225222 226222 National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs 2009-2016 (Old PSAT Scale) State20092010201120122013201420152016 Alabama209208210211209211207209 Alaska212211214212204212210206 Arizona209210209213212214213215 Arkansas204203203205202205206204 California217218219221220223222223 Colorado213213212215212215213215 Connecticut218218219220218221220220 Delaware219219215217215218215216 District of Columbia221221223223221224224225 Florida211211210214211214211214 Georgia215214215218214217215218 Hawaii216214215216211215214214 Idaho208209208211207211211208 Illinois214214214216213216215215 Indiana213211212214211215212213 Iowa210209209210207210207208 Kansas211211211214212216213213 Kentucky209209208212208211210210 Louisiana208207210209209209208211 Maine212213213212210215212211 Maryland220221220221219223221222 Massachusetts221221223223221224223223 Michigan209209209210207210210210 Minnesota214215213215213215215214 Mississippi201203205205204207207209 Missouri213211210213210213209209 Montana208204208209203207206204 Nebraska206207210209207209209209 Nevada206202208209208212208211 New Hampshire211213214216211214212213 New Jersey220221221223221224224225 New Mexico209208206210208210210208 New York216218217219215219218219 North Carolina215214214217213215212215 North Dakota201202202204200204201202 Ohio213211212214212215213215 Oklahoma208207206209206210206208 Oregon213213215216213218217215 Pennsylvania213214216215214217216217 Rhode Island213217211213211216212212 South Carolina212211208211208210209211 South Dakota205205205206204206203202 Tennessee213213212214210212212212 Texas215216215219216219218220 Utah203206203208205208208206 Vermont213213212217214217213214 Virginia219218218220217222219222 Washington217217218220216220219219 West Virginia203203202204200203201202 Wisconsin210207209209207210208208 Wyoming201201202204200203204202 ~Commended201201202204200203201202 National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs 2009-2017 (Restated Scale) State200920102011201220132014201520162017* Alabama214214215216214216213214215 Alaska216216217216211216215212213 Arizona214215214217216217217218219 Arkansas211210210212209212212211213 California219219220221220221221221221 Colorado217217216218216218217218218 Connecticut219219220220219221220220220 Delaware220220218219218219218218218 District of Columbia221221221221221222222222222 Florida216216215217216217216217217 Georgia218217218219217219218219219 Hawaii218217218218216218217217217 Idaho214214214216213216216214214 Illinois217217217218217218218218219 Indiana217216216217216218216217217 Iowa215214214215213215213214215 Kansas216216216217216218217217217 Kentucky214214214216214216215215215 Louisiana214213215214214214214216214 Maine216217217216215218216216214 Maryland220221220221220221221221221 Massachusetts221221221221221222221221222 Michigan214214214215213215215215216 Minnesota217218217218217218218217219 Mississippi208210212212211213213214212 Missouri217216215217215217214214216 Montana214211214214210213212211210 Nebraska212213215214213214214214215 Nevada212209214214214216214216214 New Hampshire216217217218216217216217216 New Jersey220221221221221222222222222 New Mexico214214212215214215215214213 New York218219219220218220219220219 North Carolina218217217219217218216218218 North Dakota208209209211207211208209209 Ohio217216216217216218217218217 Oklahoma214213212214212215212214213 Oregon217217218218217219219218219 Pennsylvania217217218218217219218219218 Rhode Island217219216217216218216216217 South Carolina216216214216214215214216215 South Dakota212212212212211212210209209 Tennessee217217216217215216216216218 Texas218218218220218220219220220 Utah210212210214212214214212215 Vermont217217216219217219217217215 Virginia220219219220219221220221221 Washington219219219220218220220220220 West Virginia210210209211207210208209209 Wisconsin215213214214213215214214215 Wyoming208208209211207210211209209 ~Commended208208209211207210208209209